Transactions fall while inventory continues to rise
The Real Estate Information Network for East Japan released its August 2026 Monthly Market Watch on September 10. Used-condominium transactions across Greater Tokyo totaled 3,180, down 10.5% from a year earlier and marking a fifth consecutive year-on-year decline. The average contracted price per square meter was ¥816,000, down 3.8% and negative for a fourth straight month. Inventory, by contrast, rose 8.2% year on year, extending its run of increases to six months. The figures do not by themselves establish a broad property-price downturn, but they do show that the tight supply conditions and strong seller leverage that characterized much of the previous upswing have eased.
Buyers are becoming more selective at elevated price levels
The market remains expensive by longer-term standards, yet the gap between asking prices and prices buyers are prepared to accept has become more important. Higher borrowing costs, elevated acquisition prices and recurring expenses such as condominium management and reserve-fund charges are constraining purchasing power. For overseas investors, the relevant comparison is increasingly not simply the yen purchase price but the relationship between acquisition cost, achievable rent, vacancy, management expenses and eventual resale value. Rising inventory also gives buyers more alternatives, allowing differences in station access, age, seismic standards, building management and repair plans to have a stronger effect on liquidity and price.
Inventory and actual closing prices will be key indicators
The main question for the coming months is whether the inventory increase is temporary or develops into longer marketing periods and further price adjustment. Sellers who base asking prices solely on peak transactions from earlier periods may find a widening gap with current buyer budgets. Buyers, however, should not interpret the aggregate figures as evidence that every property is becoming cheaper. Recent comparable transactions for the same station area, building age and floor-size bracket remain more useful than metropolitan averages. Through the autumn, the combination of transaction volume, inventory, new listings and contracted prices will provide a clearer reading of whether Greater Tokyo is experiencing a temporary pause or a more durable normalization of supply and demand.