Condominium volumes weakened particularly sharply in May
MLIT's seasonally adjusted existing-home sales index declined 1.3% month on month in April 2026 and 3.5% in May. The May condominium component fell 4.4%, while the index excluding units smaller than 30 square meters declined 4.1%. The indicator measures transaction volume from registration data rather than sale prices. At the same time, urban land prices have continued to rise in major cities, meaning some markets can experience high valuations and softer transaction activity simultaneously.
Sellers should separate appraisal values from executable prices
For an owner preparing to sell, portal listings and broker appraisal figures matter less than the prices and marketing periods of genuinely comparable completed sales. In a less liquid market, an aggressive listing can remain unsold for longer and eventually require a larger reduction. Overseas owners should also model Japanese tax procedures separately from market pricing, including possible 10.21% withholding at settlement for non-resident sellers. National data cannot determine the optimal timing for a single apartment, but consecutive declines in transaction volume are relevant evidence when setting a sales strategy.