Both detached homes and condominiums declined
MLIT reported on August 31 that the seasonally adjusted existing-home sales volume index for May 2026 stood at 125.0, down 3.5% from April, with 2010 equal to 100. Excluding condominiums smaller than 30 square meters, the combined index was 114.3, down 2.9%. Detached houses recorded an index of 124.6, a 3.4% decline, while condominiums fell 4.4% to 124.2. The condominium index excluding units under 30 square meters declined 4.1% to 100.2. April had already recorded a 1.3% month-on-month decline in the combined index, meaning transaction volumes softened for a second consecutive month.
Liquidity matters as much as price appreciation
The index is derived from ownership-transfer registrations associated with sales and measures existing residential properties purchased by individuals. It can include second homes, vacation homes and investment units. Because acquisitions of sub-30-square-meter studio apartments have become significant, MLIT publishes condominium data both including and excluding those properties. For overseas investors, the important distinction is between price movements and market liquidity: asking prices and urban land values can remain elevated even while the number of completed transactions weakens. An exit strategy should therefore examine how frequently comparable properties actually trade in the same district and floor-area segment. Two monthly declines alone do not establish a market reversal, but whether activity stabilizes or continues falling will be important evidence in the coming releases.