Prices rose while deal volume declined
Data based on the East Japan Real Estate Information Network's July 2026 Market Watch show 1,863 used-condominium transactions in Tokyo, down 13.9% from a year earlier. The average completed transaction price, however, increased 2.2% to ¥70.04 million. Used detached houses showed a similar pattern: 482 transactions, down 9.9%, but an average price of ¥61.32 million, up 4.4%. Land transactions totaled 466, down 17.7%, while the average transaction value rose 11.3% to ¥69.65 million. The July figures therefore show that reduced liquidity has not yet translated into lower headline average prices.
Lower volume does not automatically mean falling prices
Average transaction prices depend partly on the mix of properties sold. A larger share of central, newer or station-adjacent properties can lift the average even if activity weakens elsewhere. At the same time, a widening gap between sellers' asking prices and buyers' budgets can lengthen marketing periods and eventually lead to price revisions. Foreign and non-resident buyers should therefore avoid relying on a Tokyo-wide average and instead compare completed transactions by ward, station distance, building age, floor area and management quality.
Pricing discipline is becoming more important
For owners considering a sale, rising average prices remain supportive, but weaker transaction volumes increase the risk that an overly ambitious asking price will leave a property unsold for longer. Buyers may find more opportunities among listings that have been on the market for extended periods or have undergone price reductions. Overseas investors should additionally calculate management fees, reserve fund contributions, property taxes, achievable rents, vacancy assumptions, exit values and currency exposure. Tokyo's July data point toward a more selective market rather than a simple shift to either a buyer's or seller's market.